Gold, silver and the DAX hit record highs

Michael Kramer, the founder of Mott Capital Management, shares his latest market analysis and trading ideas, highlighting the near-term levels to watch across major financial instruments. The views expressed are his own and do not reflect the views of CMC Markets.

The remaining days of this week brings a dense run of US economic data before markets close on Monday for the Martin Luther King Day holiday. After data released on Tuesday showed that US consumer price inflation stayed at 2.7% in December, today we’ll get updates on producer prices and retail sales. Thursday will bring import and export data alongside jobless claims, which may draw added attention after a recent uptick in the unemployment rate. Overall, the data will help firm up expectations around US growth and the Federal Reserve’s thinking on interest rates. In Europe, German inflation data out on Friday could shape the European Central Bank’s near-term policy path. Amid this central bank uncertainty, equities and FX appear sensitive to downside surprises, while gold and silver are among the metals posting fresh record highs.

Sources: Michael Kramer, TradingView

GBP/USD

The pound, which rose above $1.3450 on Wednesday, is up almost 10% against the dollar over the past year, but momentum is weakening. Sterling this month broke below an uptrend – a trendline which previously provided support and is now acting as resistance. The relative strength index (RSI) has also dipped, reflecting the slowdown in momentum. If cable continues to decline, the next major support zone could kick in around $1.3336. To the upside, if the pair breaks past $1.3460 it could push on to $1.3550, though current signals appear to favour further consolidation or weakness.

Brent Crude Oil

International oil benchmark Brent crude oil has rebounded sharply in recent days, jumping from $60 a barrel to current levels above $66, breaking above a months-long downtrend. The RSI has turned higher, supporting the bullish shift in momentum. Further gains could propel prices towards the $68.50 to $70 range. Failure to push on risks a pullback toward $60.

Germany 40

Germany’s DAX index, up 3.4% already this year at more than 25,300 points, continues its powerful run. The index has rallied roughly 10% from the late-November lows to hit a fresh all-time high. However, the RSI is approaching 80 on the daily chart, signalling overbought conditions. Some sideways movement or a pullback towards support near 24,785 could be healthy, as a hold and rebound from that support level might underscore the rally’s sustainability.

For further analysis – including Michael’s take on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, UK 100, US NDAQ 100 , US SPX 500  and US 30 – watch his latest video:

Michael Kramer is the founder of Mott Capital Management and has over 20 years of industry experience as an analyst, trader and investment manager. He shares his trading expertise on X (Twitter), where he posts using the handle @MichaelMOTTCM, and on his YouTube channel, @Themarketchronicles.

Pricing is indicative. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinion on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.

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